Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 23, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 23, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

Denmark deploys first conscripts to Greenland 

[Euractiv, via Naked Capitalism 08-22-2026]

 

War on voting

Time to Raise Hell: Trump Taking GOP Voter Suppression Efforts to Heights Never Seen

Thom Hartmann, Aug 21, 2026 [Common Dreams]

Joyce Vance just pointed out that Howard Lutnick, Trump’s morbidly rich crony Commerce Secretary, claimed this week that they’d found over 24,000 noncitizens who’d illegally voted in the 2020 election.

It’s a lie, of course, and a pretty naked one at that, but this will be the foundation for Republicans establishing even more draconian rules to prevent married women, racial minorities, city dwellers, and low-income people from voting this fall and in 2028.

Also this week, the Center for American Progress released an extraordinarily disturbing fact sheet summarizing an investigation they published that documents fifteen separate, interlocking tactics the Trump administration, Republican governors, and GOP members of Congress are engaging in right now to rig this fall’s election….

 

THE BACKDOOR OPTION THAT COULD KEEP THE GOP IN CONTROL OF CONGRESS

[[Seymour Hersh, via Lambert Strether’s Water Cooler 2026-08-19]

From Joel McCleary, a former aide on security issues to President Jimmy Carter:

McCleary’s notion is that many of the secret military and intelligence powers initially aimed at warning about a nuclear attack or other extraordinary national security threats are now being turned on political issues: namely the prospect that the Republican Party might lose control of both chambers of Congress, as polls are saying may happen in November’s election. “Note who works the switch,” McCleary said. “Formally, the secretary of homeland security is the president’s lead agent for continuity. In practice, the homeland security apparatus now runs through Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff for policy in the White House who now sits atop an elevated office far above its old standing.

“The working hypothesis,” McCleary added, “is that Miller is the de facto head of the continuity machinery, which means that the on-off switch for the Constitution that COGCON entrusts to the president is, day to day, in the hands of an unconfirmed White House aide.

“The problem is that no legal framework distinguishes between a nuclear attack and a border dispute, between a civilization-ending pandemic and a political protest, between a genuine cyberattack on national infrastructure and a manufactured pretext for invoking extraordinary authority. The president alone defines the emergency. The president alone activates the response. The president alone signs the pre-draft orders. And no institution—not Congress, not the courts, not the military chain of command—has been given the legal tools to determine, in real time, whether the emergency is genuine and whether the response is proportionate.

“This is not a partisan observation,” McCleary said. “It is a structural deficiency that endangers the republic regardless of which party holds the White House.

 

Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting

[NPR, via The Big Picture, August 20, 2026]

A highly unusual Census Bureau report that President Trump is using to reup dubious claims of widespread illegal voting by non-U.S. citizens has ties to a Trump-aligned think tank, NPR has learned. Work on the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau, and the team behind it included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump’s first administration, according to a Census Bureau employee who NPR has agreed not to name because they fear retaliation at work. NPR finds the highly unusual Census Bureau report behind the president’s claims has ties to a Trump-aligned think tank.

 

Can We Stop a Coup With State of Emergency Declarations? The founders built fifty state governments to protect us in crisis such as these.

Christopher Armitage, Aug 15, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

… Governors have declared states of emergency for far less than any single one of these. Together they represent the largest sustained assault on constitutional governance in American history.

None of these are separate crises. The Epstein files are the web we’re caught in. Many of the people starting these wars and funding the authoritarian takeover are in those files. That’s the key. The DOJ takeover, the firing of FBI agents, the smearing of survivors, the consolidation of power, the war: all of it traces back to people protecting themselves from what those files contain, while aiming to make permanent a world where a Jeffrey Epstein type would become President for life rather than appear before a jury.

The federal investigation into Epstein’s co-conspirators is dead, and the Trump administration has spent over a year actively covering it up. SDNY had an active investigation. DOJ headquarters ordered the files transferred out of SDNY, and the investigation stopped. The FBI closed it in July 2025 with a two-page memo claiming no evidence existed. Director Kash Patel, went before Congress and attacked the credibility of the survivors. When Congress “forced” a release of the files under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, the DOJ produced roughly half of what it had collected, included the survivors’ personal information and intimate details of their abuse, and protected the names of the abusers.

Pam Bondi indicted zero co-conspirators in the fourteen months she ran the Justice Department. Trump fired her on April 2. Todd Blanche, his former personal defense lawyer and the man who personally conducted the Ghislaine Maxwell interview, took over as acting attorney general and was confirmed to the job on August 8 by a vote of 50 to 49….

… Do we hope that elections clear all this up on their own? Do we give this admin 2.5 years to continue building a MAGA army, purging the military and federal government of non-loyalists, attacking elections, and covering up criminal activities?

…. [The powers various states give their governors in emergencies.] Read that list again with the economy in mind instead of a hurricane. A governor operating under those authorities can put people on a payroll immediately, start public works without waiting out the ordinary bidding calendar, and move money, staff, and functions between agencies to wherever they are needed. Franklin Roosevelt did that nationally in the Great Depression. The emergency statutes already on the books give a governor a state-sized version of it, available the day the declaration is signed.

The founders built the country this way because they knew this exact thing could happen. The answer they left us is not in Washington, where every federal check has already failed. It is in fifty state capitals, each with a governor who can act immediately and a criminal code no federal pardon can reach. That is why a captured federal government does not have to mean a captured country, even with a transnational criminal organization calling itself the Republican Party and its oligarch owners running the executive branch.

One state has already started without an emergency declaration, and what happened there tells you both that this works and why the emergency power matters.

New Mexico’s House of Representatives voted unanimously in February to create an investigative subcommittee into Epstein’s operation at Zorro Ranch in Santa Fe County. Attorney General Raúl Torrez reopened the state’s criminal investigation the same month. The subcommittee issued twenty subpoenas to state agencies, local law enforcement, federal agencies, and banks including J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank….

What we get out of this is a democracy with a functioning justice system. That’s way better than saying “the pedophile in charge of the country just started a war, we better get out the vote in 3 months and hope they haven’t rigged the game too much!” ….

 

War

Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War

[Wall Street Journal, via The Big Picture, August 18, 2026]

Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies

 

Iran’s Weapons Production Doubled in Past Year Despite US, Israeli Strikes 

[Sputnik, via Naked Capitalism 08-22-2026]

 

SCOOP: Trump’s Iran War Has Burned Through Well Over 90% of Key Long-Range Missiles

Asawin Suebsaeng, Aug 17, 2026 [Zeteo]

Sources tell Zeteo the percentage of critical long-range missiles that the Trump administration has depleted in its failing war is in ‘at least the high nineties.’

 

Why the World’s Most Powerful Navy is Losing the Logistics War 

Sal Mercogliano, YouTube

 

The Tail That Couldn’t Keep Up: How the US Navy Ran Its Own Sailors Short on Food and Soap

Larry Johnson [via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

The Sex Criminals and Child Abusers of ICE and CBP

Spencer Ackerman, 18 Aug 2026 [forever-wars.com]

… A new report by the Ohio Immigrant Alliance, released today, pulls back the curtain on a stunning level of sexual criminal behavior within ICE and CBP. Out of 152 cases of identified immigration officials or contractors accused or convicted of criminal behavior, 131 of them, or 86.2 percent, were charged with sex offenses. Seventy-eight of them—51 percent of the entire cohort—”committed sex offenses against children—the single largest category on the list,” the report states. Cases involving a CBP officer, the report finds, “are more likely to involve underage victims” than those of an ICE officer. Yet fully half of ICE officers accused or convicted of sex offenses (12 of 24) had a minor as their victim….

 

A County Attorney Makes a Stand Against ICE in Montana

Gabriel Furshong, August 18, 2026 [The New Republic]

In April, Audrey Cromwell, the top cop in Gallatin County, a rugged and fast-growing part of Montana made famous by Paramount’s hit Yellowstone TV series, received a surprising phone call. It was a local reporter wondering what Cromwell thought about a press release from Austin Knudsen, the state’s hard-line Republican attorney general, accusing Cromwell of “stealthily” enacting a sanctuary city policy and demanding she rescind the policy within five days.

But Cromwell, a Democrat who ousted a 26-year Republican incumbent in a razor-thin race for county attorney in 2022, had never established such a policy. Nor had she received any direct communication from Knudsen.

The ostensible subject of the press release was a mundane question of bureaucratic procedure. In October, the Enforcement and Removal Operations division of Immigration and Customs Enforcement had requested confidential criminal justice information, or CCJI, on a Gallatin County resident. Because the request pertained to a deportation proceeding, which is a civil rather than criminal matter under federal law, the records department asked Cromwell’s office for guidance on whether to comply with the request. In response, a civil legal assistant in Cromwell’s office advised that a court order would be required to release the information….

 

Trump Moves to Strip American Bar Association of Its Power – Donald Trump is opening a new front in his war on higher education.

Malcolm Ferguson, August 21, 2026 [The New Republic]

President Trump is trying to take away the American Bar Association’s ability to accredit law schools due to its being too woke.

The ABA is the leading accreditor for almost 200 law schools in the United States. Without its accreditation, a school’s graduates may not qualify to take the bar exam, and the school itself may not qualify for federal funding—two massive implications. Now the Education Department has published a 500-page report recommending the removal of that long-standing power because it believes the ABA is trying to “inject their own political preferences, their own ideologies into the work that they do.” ….

 

Private Prison Giant Gave Trump-aligned Super PAC $1.4 Million After Landing Mega ICE Contracts

Freddy Brewster, Luke Goldstein, August 20, 2026 [The Lever]

 

The buck stops somewhere else: A look at Trump’s tendency to avoid blame when things go awry 

[AP, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

Report: Trump Wants to Move Ford-Class Carrier’s Island for Appearance

[Maritime Executive, via Lambert Strether’s Water Cooler 2026-08-20]

“In addition to the remarkable decision to remove the electromagnetic launch system and weapons elevators from future ships in the Ford-class carrier program, the White House has reportedly asked the Navy to relocate the entire superstructure to place it amidships.” More: “The intended practical advantages to this layout notwithstanding, the Navy is now studying a revamp of the design to put the island amidships, the way it was on older generations of pre-nuclear, conventionally-powered hulls. The motive is in part to make the ships more aesthetically pleasing for the president, according to new reporting by The Hill and the Washington Post. The Navy’s engineers have “begun moving out on options to meet the President’s intent,” a spokesperson confirmed to The Hill.” And: “The Washington Post reports that the cost of the redesign would be in the range of several billion dollars, on top of the $13 billion base price per unit. This extra cost would add to previously-announced multi-billion dollar change orders to remove the ships’ electromagnetic catapults and weapons elevators, two systems that the Navy has had significant difficulty in bringing to maturity.”

 

Strategic Political Economy

Years of US tariffs on China have largely failed to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers

[Peterson Institute for International Economics, via Naked Capitalism 08-17-2026]

 

Global power shift

U.S. Pulls Last Aircraft Carrier Out of the East Asia: Iran War Killing West’s Anti-China Military Pivot

[Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff, August-17th-2026]

 

Russia’s India Route, China’s BRI and Pakistan’s Dilemma: A New Battle for Eurasian Connectivity 

[India Narrative, via Naked Capitalism 08-18-2026]

Numbers travel further than rhetoric here. Russian crude supplied roughly 2 percent of India’s imports before 2022; by July 2026 the figure had reached 55.5 percent, a new high struck even as the Gulf burned (Discovery Alert 2026; see Figure 1). That is not diplomatic friendship. It is structural dependence, running in both directions, since Moscow now needs this buyer nearly as much as Delhi wants the discount, and Farrell and Newman’s (2019) network logic applies squarely: asymmetric position, not sentiment, is what generates leverage.

 

How China destroyed US sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea 

[YouTube, via Naked Capitalism 08-22-2026]

 

Why China’s Grip on Iron Ore Is a Warning for the US Navy 

[The National Interest, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

China Is Moving Fast on AI. It’s Also Keeping It in Line. 

[Barron’s, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

China’s green revolution and what it means for the world 

[The Week, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

China Exports 1 Million Automobiles in a Month … Twice 

[Clean Technica, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

Oligarchy

Trump’s Billionaire Boys Club: How Donald Trump has stacked his administration with investment bankers and billionaire businessmen and women

[Public Citizen, August 17, 2026, via Lever News]

…  Among Public Citizen’s key findings:[5]

  • President Trump has hired at least 57 individuals with assets of ‘as much as’ $100 million or more to run the government’s public agencies or to act as U.S. ambassadors overseas;[6]
  • The combined declared assets of those 57 individuals range from $13.9 billion to more than $34.8 billion;
  • At least 31 of these individuals have declared assets of $100 million or more;[7]
  • Eight of the individuals are worth as much as $1 billion or more;
  • Nearly 34% of Trump’s cabinet are worth as much as $100 million or more;
  • Seventeen of these 57 ultra-millionaires are U.S ambassadors, the remaining 40 individuals have senior positions within a wide range of federal agencies;
  • The appointment of some individuals to senior government positions indicates a striking correlation to multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s presidential political campaign, associated political action committees, or his 2025 Presidential Inaugural Committee;
  • In total, 30 of the 57 individuals listed in the table below provided more than $65 million in campaign contributions to Trump associated political committees during the 2024 Presidential election cycle.

 

Monopoly Round-Up: What Happens When Oligarchs Stop Being Polite

Matt Stoller, Aug 16, 2026 [BIG]

Before getting to the full round-up, I want to go over something that is a pretty common tool used to push back against populist policy – the capital strike. That is when an employer or financier uses their ability to withhold capital to threaten a political entity in order to secure desired policy changes. In the 1920s, then-Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon explained the basics: “Just as labor cannot be forced to work against its will, so it can be taken for granted that capital will not work unless the return is worth while.”

We are seeing this situation play out right now, as Paramount CEO David Ellison has told executives at his company that he will move the studio out of California if the Attorney General, Rob Bonta, does not allow his merger with Warner Discovery. He is also threatening to move CBS out of New York City to punish New York Attorney General Leticia James….

But in addition to being interest in and of itself, the Ellison threat is a useful lens to understand what will happen as the populist wave crashes into an entrenched class of oligarchs. After all, right now, there are virtually no examples of challenging billionaires directly, the Paramount-Warner example stands alone. But that will soon change, and we can expect similar reactions from Ellison’s cohort as they face real democratic pushback.

What could this rolling set of conflicts look like?

Let’s go back to Andrew Mellon, who was Treasury Secretary but also the owner of the aluminum monopoly, Alcoa. In 1930, when Democrats in Congress tried to lower the protective tariff on aluminum imports from five to two cents a pound, New York Senator Royal Copeland got a threat which caused him to change his position. If that tariff change happened, Alcoa would offshore its production to Canada. Copeland said the “people of this country are at the mercy of this monster monopoly, no matter what we do.” It was on “account of fear of the power of this corporation to bring distress, poverty, and unemployment to the American toiling masses” that he reversed himself, and maintained the tariff, and Alcoa’s profit margins, at a high level.

Ultimately, New Dealers did break the power of Alcoa, but it took until the 1940s to do that, with a ground-breaking antitrust case, explicit government investment in new aluminum companies, and bauxite and power resources from public lands. The capital strike in 1930 did block the reduction in tariffs, because Mellon had the capital, and the government didn’t develop an alternative means of delivering aluminum for years….

Get ready for a lot more of this dynamic, because we now live in a society where a small number of firms and individuals command trillions of dollars in capital, with tight control of intellectual property and infrastructure. Of course, it’s conceptually easy to destroy these threats of capital strikes, the government could simply supply capital when the superrich balk. That’s why what Mamdani is doing with grocery stores is so infuriating to the rich. You’d also need to break monopolies, weaken copyright and patents, and generally impose public utility rules on vital infrastructure.

The answer, in other words, is democracy. But if you go to Hollywood right now, you’ll find some workers who now want the Paramount-Warner merger to go through, because they believe it’ll keep jobs in California. Threats work, at least until we stand up to them and win.

 

They Don’t Care

Aurelien [via Naked Capitalism 08-20-2026]

… we have arrived at a situation where you can exercise power and authority, and have influence and demand respect, without the need to have any knowledge of things you are responsible for, to tell the truth about what you do know, or even to regard the search for truth itself as a justifiable and important pursuit.

But the origins of this problem lie, I think, not with Foucault or Derrida (though I’ll touch on them briefly) but with something very different: theories developed by right-wing economists in the 1960s and 1970s.

For years, economists on the fringes had been trying to persuade governments that inflation could be controlled by changes in interest rates. Putting rates up, they claimed, would (theoretically) reduce the demand for money, so that inflation would go down, at least for some values of “inflation,” and some types of interest rates. Inflation was a huge problem in the 1970s as a result of the 1973 oil price shock, and, whilst it was falling substantially by the end of the decade, the Tory government that came to power in 1979 was obsessed with inflation as a threat, and brought these ideas blinking out of the shadows and applied them. Now in practice, the result was a disaster: high interest rates pushed the Pound up and made exports un-competitive, companies went out of business, unemployment doubled, and, ironically, inflation shot up again as high interest rates increased costs. Whoops. But what’s important here is that this is the first known sighting of the idea that knowledge and truth were something to be imposed by fiat, not sought. There was no supporting evidence whatever for the hypothesis linking inflation and interest rates, but those involved didn’t care. The theory was by definition right because it was intellectually persuasive to them, and indeed it continues to have an influence even today.

As economies became more and more virtual, as production of practically everything was outsourced to China, and everything became financialised, statistics became steadily more ethereal. Once, the economic news would be about the balance of payments, the strength of sterling or the rate of unemployment and changes in industrial production. These were all real things that you could in principle measure, and had real effects on peoples’ lives. But now the powers that be have decided that they don’t care about such things and the practical effects on peoples’ lives. Indeed, they don’t care about the real world at all, the world in which we live. This became clear to many people for the first time in the 2008 economic crash, where an astonished public discovered that most of the wealth that was supposed to exist actually didn’t, and that for years clever bankers had been selling sliced-up underperforming mortgages to each other, which were actually worth nothing. Yet if anything, the problem has become worse, with the financialisation of financialisation itself, where the ruling class simply doesn’t care about the real world, but works itself into lathers about futures prices of barrels of oil, and how low they can get them so they can sell them at a profit later. No matter how often they are told that you can’t buy and sell things that don’t exist, they don’t understand and anyway they don’t care….

… knowledge today is derived from norms, and norms are enforced by power, just like the deconstructionists said, although probably not in the way they expected. Truths are normative truths, not pragmatic ones. Thus, Immigration is a Good Thing, costs and practical difficulties do not exist, and anyone who draws attention to them is a fascist. Thus also, entire institutions, in some weird Idealistic sense, are declared inherently “racist” or “sexist.” This is not a judgement about actions of individuals or even groups, but a judgement about the Idealist essence of vaguely defined entities which in fact are changing an evolving all the time. Since the essence of such institutions is decided in advance and can be taken for granted, any search for actual knowledge abut how they operate is unnecessary: critics just don’t care….

 

This Palantir Billionaire’s Passion Project is Criminalizing Homelessness

Sophie Hurwitz, Aug 22, 2026 [Mother Jones]

Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of the weapons-tech company Palantir, is also a major force behind the Trump administration’s policy of pushing unhoused people toward incarceration.

Lonsdale, a longtime critic of “housing first” policy—which proposes that homelessness be solved by supplying those in need of housing with somewhere to live—argues that fining and arresting people for sleeping in public will push them into mental health treatment….

The Cicero Institute, a lobbying group he founded eight years ago, has been instrumental in passing laws criminalizing camping or sleeping in public in 16 states, according to the New York Times. In total, the think tank has worked to pass 241 pieces of legislation in the past 5 years, on issues ranging from education to healthcare. Its c4 arm, Cicero Action, has engaged in lobbying related to military spending and defense contracts, according to the National Homelessness Law Institute. But time and again, Lonsdale and Cicero return to their push to eliminate unhoused people from public life….

 

Felonomics

GRAPH: Price increases since the start of the Iran War 2/28/26

[@charliebilello via The Big Picture, August 17, 2026]

 

Economists Blame $40 Trillion Debt Milestone on Two Things: GOP Ineptitude and Tax Cuts for the Rich

Jake Johnson, August 20, 2026 [CommonDreams]

 

Elon Musk Broke the FAA — Palantir Is Picking Up the Pieces

[The Verge, via The Big Picture, August 20, 2026]

On August 6 the Minneapolis air route control center lost radar and communications for two hours, disrupting more than 1,100 flights across a 330,000-square-mile, nine-state sector. Musk’s DOGE was supposed to rebuild the nation’s air traffic control system, but it ended up paving the way for Peter Thiel’s company to take over.

 

Bad Food: It’s not hard to follow the money

Joyce Vance, Aug 22, 2026 [Civil Discourse ]

 

Trump Is Blocking Billions of Dollars of Grants That Would Fix the Grid

[Canary Media, via The Big Picture, August 16, 2026]

Jeff St. John on the Department of Energy canceling or stalling funding for thousands of projects meant to shore up a stressed grid — and not only in blue states.

 

The carnage of mainstream neoliberal economics

The Enshittification of Big Food: Why the food on your shelf keeps getting worse

[The Future Market), via The Big Picture, August 19, 2026]

Mike Lee traces the 1990 swap of beef tallow for partially hydrogenated vegetable oil in McDonald’s fryers. The trans fats proved more dangerous than the saturated fat they replaced, and by the late 1990s were blamed for roughly 50,000 premature American deaths a year.

 

Copper squeeze builds with spreads surging and price near record 

[Mining.com, via Naked Capitalism 08-18-2026]

 

How an Alleged Wage-Fixing Scheme Is Fueling Historic Labor Uprisings 

[Sentient, via Naked Capitalism 08-20-2026]

 

Oil Majors Reap $93 Billion Windfall From the Iran War

[Oil Price, via Naked Capitalism 08-17-2026]

 

Rising US life expectancy isn’t what it seems

[Salon, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2026]

 

Health care crisis

Universal Health Coverage Could Save $1 Trillion and 114,000 Lives Every Year, Yale Study Projects

Matt Kristoffersen, August 13, 2026 [Yale School of Public Health]

A single-payer universal health care system could cover every American, save more than 100,000 lives a year, and still cost $1 trillion less than the system it would replace, according to a new preprint study led by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health.

For the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, the researchers modeled what would happen if the United States adopted a national public insurance program like the one proposed in the Medicare for All Act. Using 2024 spending, insurance coverage, and mortality data, they estimate that the universal coverage would reduce annual health expenditures by $1.04 trillion, or nearly 20% — even after accounting for the additional care that uninsured and underinsured people would receive.

 

Hospital Prepayment Rules Add New Wrinkle to Patients’ Financial Responsibility 

[MedPage Today, via Naked Capitalism 08-22-2026]

 

Her Brain Was Broken. It Was Fixed With Sound—Not a Scalpel

[Wired, via The Big Picture, August 19, 2026]

One woman’s meth addiction was so bad, the only option left might have been brain surgery. Then a single session of noninvasive, focused ultrasound seemed to do what years of treatment could not. Emily Mullin on Erin McNulty, missing for weeks and years into methamphetamine use, and the focused-ultrasound procedure that reached her without surgery.

 

The U.S. Healthcare System is Already Mostly Socialized

Paul Krugman [via The Big Picture, August 18, 2026]

Krugman examines the framing fight in Michigan’s Senate race, and why “socialized medicine” is an odd attack line against a system that already is. And there’s nothing radical about wanting to end insurance company parasitism

 

Restoring balance to the economy

Are Insurers Overcharging in Your State?

Brian Shearer and Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, Aug 17, 2026

In April, I published two papers describing how property insurance is too expensive, and More Perfect Union just posted a great video explaining it. Today, we’re also releasing a new data tool that lets you see exactly how much insurers may be overcharging in your state, drawing on 25 years of insurance regulator data across every state and five major insurance lines.

Everything from auto and homeowners’ insurance to workers comp and liability insurance has become more expensive than necessary. Property insurance is one of the few markets where the government has veto-power over the prices and yet state insurance regulators have allowed the costs to creep up to $1.1 trillion per year. That’s twice what people pay for all utilities combined, so this is a major part of the overall affordability crisis. And it’s not just consumers who pay – businesses across the country are being price gouged too. Insurance is one of the biggest costs for restaurants and small businesses, and a major cost for developers building affordable housing.

The reason prices are so high is simple. Insurers are charging more than they need to cover losses from actual claims, generating extra revenue to pay for wasteful spending on dividends, stock buybacks, excessive advertising budgets and high agent commissions, private jets, and other expenses….

 

 

Information age dystopia / surveillance state

The Flock Uprising Is Just the Beginning

[Salon, via The Big Picture, August 16, 2026]

The public rebellion against Flock’s AI-powered surveillance cameras — sold to local governments as mere “license plate readers” — has turned into a national cat-and-mouse game between vandals and cops.

 

Flock Cameras Are Going to Get Drivers Killed

[Jalopnik, via The Big Picture, August 16, 2026]

Justin Hughes on how often the readers get it wrong, and what happens when police act on a bad hit.

 

Technology and Constitutional Rot

[Yale Law School, via Naked Capitalism 08-18-2026]

Technological change affects the Constitution not only by creating new problems of constitutional interpretation, but also by changing the distribution of economic and political power. New technologies alter what governments and private actors can know, control, predict, and accomplish. When constitutional institutions fail to adapt, large shifts in power and control can lead to constitutional rot: the process by which a democratic republic becomes less democratic and less republican over time. The United States has suffered from increasing constitutional rot over the past four decades; rapid technological change has made the rot worse.

Our Second Gilded Age has many similarities to the technological and economic upheavals of the First Gilded Age, which was also a period of constitutional decay. We now live in the Algorithmic Society, where public and private decision making increasingly depend on algorithms, artificial intelligence, platforms, large-scale data collection and digital surveillance. The Algorithmic Society produces an Algorithmic State, including a National Surveillance State organized around prediction and prevention. These changes disproportionately strengthen the executive branch, weaken Congress, limit practical judicial oversight, and increase government’s dependence on powerful private firms and privately-owned technological infrastructure.

Large global technology companies increasingly exercise governing power over communications, commerce, national security, access to information, and public debate. As a result, government and technology firms engage in repeated attempts at mutual co-optation, blurring traditional distinctions between public and private power. Digital platforms reshape the public sphere through an attention economy that weakens knowledge, intensifies political polarization, and erodes trust. These changes exacerbate four central features of constitutional rot: growing wealth inequality, political polarization, loss of trust, and policy disasters.

Despite these dire circumstances, the United States has recovered from periods of constitutional rot before. The First Gilded Age gave way to the reforms of the Progressive Era and the New Deal. Today constitutional renewal involves a different set of reforms: new digital privacy laws and new antitrust, civil-rights, and due-process protections. Renewal means reconstructing and improving the knowledge institutions that underwrite our democracy. It requires structural changes that better allow Congress to check and oversee the executive branch. And it requires reforms that secure and strengthen our system of democratic representation.

 

Meta faces a $1.4 trillion reckoning in latest trial over social media addiction

[Engadget, via Naked Capitalism 08-18-2026]

 

Facebook Is Drowning In Islamophobic AI Slop Calling for Violence Against Muslim Americans

[Futurism, via Naked Capitalism 08-18-2026]

 

Climate and environmental crises

The Strait of Hormuz Isn’t the Only Major Shipping Route in Crisis

Kate Aronoff, August 21, 2026 [The New Republic]

Two other vital maritime waterways are snarled—due not to war, but the climate. This is the new normal….

Water levels in Germany’s Rhine River—one of Europe’s busiest shipping routes—have been at record lows amid weeks of drought, forcing cargo carriers to cut shipments to as little as one-fifth of normal capacity. Those problems didn’t start this summer, either. Rising temperatures caused by climate change have meant less snow in the Alps during the winter, and so less meltwater draining into the Rhine in warmer months. ING, the Dutch banking giant, estimates that the halt of traffic on the Rhine ​will lower Germany’s gross domestic product by 0.3 percentage points this year, which is especially bad news considering the country was on track to grow by just 0.8 percentage points all year. German insurer Allianz likewise estimates that the brutal two-week heat wave in June will cut all of Europe’s GDP by 0.3 percentage points. In May, Allianz analysts had already projected that the countries most exposed to extreme heat—France, Japan, Italy, Germany, and Spain—will see economic output that’s 5 to 7 percent lower than it would have been otherwise by 2030.

It’s not just Europe. The cost of shipping goods through the busiest lanes in the Panama Canal have jumped to record highs amid falling water levels and increased traffic from vessels redirected from routes disrupted by the Iran war. The Financial Times reports that transit slots on the canal’s most commonly used locks are being auctioned off for 16 times the average price for the same period last year. The ongoing El Niño—on track to be the strongest such event in 76 years—has seen wet season rainfalls slip below previous levels. Climate change has already made rainfall there much less predictable, meaning extreme droughts and floods both threaten to “push canal infrastructure past its operational limits,” The New York Times reported….

 

Low Rivers, High Stakes: Europe’s Nuclear Cooling Crisis

Felicity Bradstock – Aug 21, 2026 [oilprice.com]

 

Democrats’ political malpractice

Hakeem Jeffries’ Betrayal Shows Why Democratic Voters Are So Enraged

David Sirota, August 17, 2026 [The Lever]

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) announced his opposition to Medicare for All on the same day a CBS News poll found 90 percent of Democratic voters support the idea — and 72 hours after a Yale University study showed the program would save 114,000 American lives and $1 trillion every single year.

Here’s some important context: Jeffries has raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars of campaign cash from healthcare PACs in the 2026 election cycle and didn’t face any primary challenge holding him accountable to Democratic voters’ desires, despite him representing a deep New York City blue district….

 

All the Change in the World 

Thomas Frank [Harper’s, via Naked Capitalism 08-22-2026]

… Despite its text-inflected architecture and its staggering price tag, the Obama Center is, in fact, not a presidential library at all: it houses no official presidential records for researchers to dig through. Those are stored in a National Archives facility somewhere in suburban Maryland. With this magnificent granite chunk, in other words, the vanity side of postpresidential structures has finally and totally eclipsed the research side. Instead of archives, the Obama Center features beautiful landscaping, a restaurant and bar, an athletic center, and up in the tower an Obama museum that trumpets what is flattering to its subject and omits what is not….

I intend no insult when I use the word “elite”; it is the only word that accurately represents the dazzling list of names one finds on the Obama Center’s donor wall. In the fifty-million-dollars-and-up category we find Jeff Bezos, of Amazon and the Washington Post; Connie Ballmer, the wife of a former Microsoft CEO; Brian Chesky, the CEO of Airbnb; TWG Global, an AI-focused holding company; a foundation associated with the private-equity billionaire Glenn H. Hutchins; and a mystery donor identified as Anonymous.
These patterns persist in the more densely populated donor categories: tech and private equity, multibillionaires and dynastic wealth; great foundations and the biggest of big corporations. Eric Schmidt and Sean Parker are there, as are Microsoft and the Gates Foundation. Ken Griffin, a financier who supports conservative causes, shows up in the 1-to-9.9-million-dollar category, along with the personal foundation of the Walmart heiress Alice Walton and the Walmart Foundation itself….
Fifteen years ago, conservatives used this sort of anodyne sentiment—then as now one of Obama’s favorite modes—to spin nightmares about our “radical” president and how he intended to “socialize” America. Others, like me, brushed it off because we came to see Obama as a moderate’s moderate, a would-be Blue Dog Democrat, a man who honored norms, precedent, and incrementalism to a self-sabotaging degree. This man was no progressive, we would realize: he was a fan of the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman; chose Larry Summers as his principal economic adviser; and longed to strike a “grand bargain” with the Republicans in Congress. (Cuts to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for tax increases, for those who don’t remember.)
To judge by the Obama Center, however, one might wonder whether those right-wingers were on to something after all. Summers and the pursuit of a “grand bargain” are not mentioned in the museum; they have been removed from the official account. But Rules for Radicals is sold in the gift shop. And the museum does describe—at length and in some detail—the history of left-wing protest in America. Exhibit after exhibit carries visitors to the unavoidable conclusion that Barack Obama was somehow the bearer of the sacred flame of reform, the heir of the Progressives, the women’s-suffrage movement, the New Deal, the civil-rights movement, the various upheavals of the Sixties, the Eighties Chicago mayor Harold Washington, and pretty much any other left-wing insurgency you can think of. He was, the museum suggests, the most progressive president anyone could possibly hope for.
Powerful institutions cloaking themselves in the trappings of radicalism has been a familiar phenomenon ever since the nation’s corporations, foundations, electric utilities, and intelligence agencies decided a while back that they needed to depict themselves as intersectional warriors against colonialism and white supremacy. But here the stratagem indicates something more meaningful….

Resistance

The Supreme Court’s Greatest Weakness: A History of Successful Defiance – How states, presidents, and Congress have repeatedly defied the Supreme Court and won

Christopher Armitage, Aug 16, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

 

America Has the Parts to Build What the EU Built: A Toolkit for Beating Autocrats.

Christopher Armitage, Aug 18, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

Just a few months ago, Hungary held an election with roughly 80 percent turnout and threw Viktor Orbán out of power after sixteen years. Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, which ran on naming the Orbán government’s corruption openly and promising specific measures to dismantle it, won 53.18 percent of the vote and 138 of the 199 seats in parliament, a two-thirds supermajority, while Orbán’s Fidesz took 55 seats. Magyar’s 3.3 million votes were the most any party has ever received in democratic Hungary. The textbook case of a seemingly successfully captured regime ended at a ballot box the regime itself had spent over a decade engineering to be unloseable.

Orbán lost because several conditions converged, and one of them was that the European Union spent years successfully deploying a working soft-power apparatus that starved his patronage system of the money it ran on. Over the course of the Orbán government’s standoff with Brussels, the EU froze tens of billions of euros earmarked for Hungary on rule-of-law grounds, with around 18 billion still frozen at the time of the election and over a billion permanently forfeited when the first tranche of suspended funds expired at the end of 2024. That money had been the lifeblood of the Fidesz network, much of it historically funneled to Orbán-connected oligarchs who in turn kept the regime’s coalition loyal. Cut off the money and the coalition gets fragile. When Tisza ran a credible challenge, the coalition broke. The collapse was policy doing exactly what it was designed to do….

 

 

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution

Deploying To SCOTUS: Big Oil’s Dark Money Army

Freddy Brewster, August 20, 2026 [The Lever]

Dark-money conservative groups and Big Oil interests have quietly mobilized behind a landmark Supreme Court case that could restrict when and how states and municipalities can seek climate damages from fossil fuel companies. At the center of the case is an oil and gas company linked to a major Trump donor and personal ally of Justice Samuel Alito.

Suncor Energy Inc. v. Board of County Commissioners of Boulder County will decide whether states and local municipalities can sue oil and gas companies that knew fossil fuels contributed to worsening natural disasters and hid it from the public. Suncor is partially owned by Elliott Investment Management — a private equity firm led by Trump donor Paul Singer, who has vacationed with Alito — and has attracted the attention of the dark money network associated with Leo Leonard, the billionaire-backed architect of the far-right Supreme Court….

Consumer Watchdog found that at least 16 of the groups that filed amicus briefs supporting the oil and gas companies are funded by the Koch Network, a petrochemical-fueled conservative coalition, and nine of the groups received funding from Leo’s dark money machine. Ten of the groups were partially bankrolled by the Sarah Scaife Foundation, a conservative nonprofit that helped fund the Heritage Foundation as it wrote the Project 2025 blueprint to remake the federal government under the second Trump administration.

 

 

How the Supreme Court Kicked Off America’s Sports Betting Addiction Crisis

Madiba K. Dennie, 08.18.26 [Talking Points Memo]

In 2017, Americans legally wagered $4.9 billion on sporting events. Last year, they bet over $165 billion. And the true costs of their bets were even higher: One-quarter of sports bettors, surveyed by U.S. News last summer, worried that they couldn’t control their gambling. Over 30,000 people reach out to the National Problem Gambling Helpline every month.

“Problem gambling,” a term referring to an inability to control gambling behavior that results in personal or financial harm, is at least twice as common among sports bettors as among gamblers in general. It’s unsurprising, then, that Congress enacted a law decades ago that prohibited sports gambling throughout much of the country. But in 2018, the Supreme Court struck that law down, freeing states to partner with the gambling industry to profit off their vulnerable residents. A growing body of research shows Americans are now paying the price.

Before the Court’s decision in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association, only four states authorized some form of sports betting. One year after Murphy, 19 states and the District of Columbia authorized sports betting. Today, 39 states and Washington, D.C., have laws authorizing sports betting. Most allow people to place mobile bets, which means that millions of Americans now carry an addictive bankrupting device in their pockets.

The consequences have been predictably grim. A June 2026 study of patient records showed that in states that legalized sports betting, diagnoses of gambling disorder increased by more than 60 percent since the Court’s ruling. A March 2026 study found statistically significant increases in people falling 90 or more days behind on their car loan and student loan payments—both in states that legalized sports betting and in counties within 15 miles of a legal state….

[TW: I have written a number of times that one of the key principles of civic republicanism is a civic duty to “do good.” Such abhorrent Supreme Court decisions can be easily struck down by simply defining these principles of civic republicanism if we somehow manage to revive the philosophy. ]

 

Civic republicanism

How 10,000 American Cities Got Their Names

[Wall Street Journal, via The Big Picture, August 18, 2026]

Carl Churchill mines a century-old federal report in which geographer Henry Gannett of the United States Geological Survey catalogued the origins of some 10,000 town and city names. Good semiquincentennial reading. The federal government used to catalog the origins of town names nationwide. A 334-page report reveals the influences that shaped American communities as they spread across the country.

[TW: Conservatives like to stoke the cultural war issue of “patriotism.” And liberals and the left have stupidly allowed conservatives to dominate the discussion of public virtue, and “patriotism.” What could be more patriotic than understanding the historical background of where you live? The national government in the 1920s funding a United States Geological Survey project to identify and record the origins of town names is a great example of promoting the General Welfare – in no small part because there is no immediately obvious link to the General Welfare. Contrast this to Margaret Thatcher’s notorious principle of conservative economics / neoliberalism, “There is no such thing as society.”  As conservatives like to argue, USA is a republic, not a democracy. But they have no idea what the actual governing principles of a republic should be. In fact, they are hostile to those principles, because they point to imposing strict and severe limitations on capitalism and “free enterprise” and a fundamental hostility to concentrations of economic power.]

 

The Hidden Debt That Apple Owes to the CIA

[WSJ, via Naked Capitalism 08-20-2026]

Without CIA funding that helped keep NeXT afloat in the ’80s, Steve Jobs might not have made a triumphant return to Apple—and the iPhone might not have its foundational operating code.

[TW: Just one example of Alexander Hamilton’s policies and how USA was actually built (see the links at the end): government promotion of science and technology.”]

.

 

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Another Word On Treasury Bonds

Treasury bonds are auctioned by the Treasury department. It is an auction: banks say what rates they will accept, the ones who offer the lowest rate get the bonds. You can agree to buy bonds without bidding, in which case you just get whatever rate the auction sets.

So Treasury does not set the rates and say “take it or leave it.”

The rates for short term bonds are close to the Federal Reserve rate, longer term bonds can diverge a lot based on how much banks think the future is dangerous. After all if you’re locked in for five, ten or twenty years, and bond interest rates go up, you just took a bath relatively speaking. And since they probably went up because inflation went up, you could wind up with less real money than you started with. With short term bonds you can take a loss, but you aren’t stuck with it.

This is the primary market. The secondary market is FAR larger and is people selling bonds that already exist to each other. If interest rates go up, the price of existing bonds goes down, and vice-versa.

The largest holders of Treasury bonds outside of the US are Japan, China and the EU. If they sell a lot of bonds (and Japan is considering it) then for the usual reasons, the price will go down on bonds and that means interest rates need to rise in the next auction. If I can get bonds for cheaper, I’m not going to buy them off the primary market or from primary dealers.

Now there are banks who are required to buy bonds. First there are primary dealers, 25 of them: they have to bid. But they aren’t required to take the interest rates Treasury wants taken. As a rule they’ll try to be close to what Treasury wants, being a Primary Dealer is valuable, but they aren’t going to cut their throats.

The secondary market effectively determines the minimum interest rate that Primary Dealers can accept, because if they accepted less they’d be buying bonds worth less than bonds on the secondary market. They’re not going to eat billions of dollars of losses.

Next we have the fact that all US banks are essentially required to hold Treasuries as part of their liquidity requirements. Most assets count for liquidity, but only some assets are counted at 100%. Treasuries count, because the idea is that the Feds can always print money and therefore you are always sure to at least get your interest payments. The federal government cannot go bankrupt, so long as the US debt is denominated in dollars.

BUT as prices for bonds drop, which remember happens in inverse to interest rates on new bonds and also drop if there’s much more selling than buying on the secondary market, the value of the bonds that all these banks hold as their reserve requirement also drops.

So if Treasuries become a lot cheaper the banks suddenly can’t, en-masse, and for no fault of their own (this time) meet their liquidity requirements. And then you have a potential banking crisis.

Yes, the Fed could then step in and pull some arguably illegal shenanigans. But that has its own downsides. The bottom line is that if the world suddenly doesn’t want as many Treasuries as the debt and interest payments requires, the US has a real problem.

Go back to “as long as US debt is denominated in dollars”. A lot of counries can’t borrow in their own currency, or can’t borrow all the money they need. So they issue bonds denominated in other currencies, usually the US dollar.

If there isn’t enough demand for US bonds, then suddenly the US is in the same position. Bear in mind, even if I want exposure to the US, do I want it in Treasuries? After all, it’s the stock market that’s been super juicied, and if I think inflation is going to go up significantly, why buy Treasuries now? Why not wait?

But this where the rest of the current clusterfuck comes in. There’s every reason to believe that inflation will go up. A barrel of diesel is now selling for around $180 dollars. The Iran mess shows no end in sight. AI looks like a circle jerk bubble.

What happens if AI is a bubble and bursts at the same time as all this is going on?

Well that tanks the stock market. Suddenly foreigners want a lot less US dollars, since they don’t want as many US bonds or stocks.

If this happens, the US dollar starts falling. All assets owned in US dollars become worth less to everyone, foreigners and domestic, since the US dollar can buy less (remember, net importer.)

What we have right now is a perfect storm: the AI bubble, treasury bond problems, the Bank of Japan needing to sell treasuries to prop up the Yen, the Iran war. The US isn’t intervening to help Japan with the Yen out of the goodness of their own hearts, most of these people would sell their own kids into sex slavery if it’d help them get ahead. They’re doing so because if they don’t help Japan, Japan will help itself by selling potentially hundreds of billions of Treasuries in a short time.

If you’ve been following, you know that means that bond prices will drop and interest rates on new issues will have to go up and banks will become insolvent. It also will mean that a lot of other people will sell because they’ll get hit by margin calls as the value of their portfolio drops precipitously.

This is a real problem. It is not fake. And because it is a few problems: the Iran war, the carry trade, the AI bubble all at the same time, it’s very hard to manage.

If Trump had a lick of sense or wasn’t being blackmailed by Israel (or whatever the reason is) he’d end the damn war tomorrow and give Iran what is needed, because keeping the war going is risking the entire ball of wax.

Once the US loses dollar hegemony, it won’t get it back because most of the world hates it and Russia/China and others have been working hard to create SWIFT alternatives. Likewise if the US loses dollar hegemony most of the West can expect a huge hit to standards of living.

Dollar hegemony could have continued for another twenty years if the US had played nice with China and Russia, not abused sanctions, and not started stupid wars. Moving off has real costs and if the price of staying on wasn’t high, countries would have just gone along with it. But the US made unnecessary enemies and fucked around, and now it’s going to find out. If not during this crisis conflux, then the next, and there will be a next.

 

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Another Big Profit Opportunity For Elites Is On The Way (Bonds/Carry Trade)

Japan has, since the mid 90s, had very low interest rates. The Japanese carry trade was to borrow in Japan and invest in America. You didn’t even need to take any real risk. Borrow Japanese, buy safe bonds in the US that paid more. Or you could use the money for riskier bets.

This has been going on for more than half my life and I’m not young. It was one of those money spigots that insiders and wealthy people have access too, but most of the rest of us simply watch: free money for some.

Now it’s coming to an end. The Japanese Yen is under immense pressure and so far interventions have not done squat. So the Japanese are raising interest rates.

But more than that they’re selling large chunks of their US treasuries in interventions, and Japan is the largest holder of US government debt outside of America. (China is second.)

This happens at the same time as the US bond market is breaking. Treasury literally can’t sell all of its bonds. Rates are high, about at 2007 levels, and they’re selling short term bonds and using that to buy their own long term bonds.

Add to this issues with oil and distillates, especially diesel, the fact that the US military is basically out of a lot of weapons and has lost a war.

Then there’s the real-estate market:

America and Americans are under a lot of stress. Because interest rates are high and Biden and Trump love to spend but not tax there are also soaring interest payments on the US debt.

Now the big advantage the US has over most countries is that its debt is denominated in its own currency. The federal government cannot go bankrupt unless elites lose their will to print money, which so far they haven’t. They’ve printed literal trillions since 2008, though it’s concealed by pretending that Federal Reserve operations which create money out of mid air to keep rich people rich aren’t money printing.

The result was massive inflation in the top end, and a drying up of businesses aiming at the middle class and poor. You see this most clearly in Las Vegas, which used to have cheap rooms and food but now doesn’t, because why cater to people who have no money?

(In China prices are low, even at luxury hotels, because there is a mass market like the one the US had in the 50s and 60s.)

After all this add in the AI bubble and fertilizer and diesel shortages hitting farmers.

The entire system is cracking apart.

The smartest money isn’t the money that has been plunging into the AI bubble, it’s the people who have kept their powder dry, because as everything goes to hell, there will be significant buying opportunities. Warren Buffet, for example, built up a huge amount of cash, though his successor has spent some.

In a serious economic crisis, and one is coming, you can buy up companies and assets (and all those homes, which you then rent at profit maximizing rates which leave millions homeless) for cents on the dollar.

As for you, dear reader, well, probably you won’t be able to take advantage of this, any more than you could in the bounce after 2007.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks will have to decide whether or not to do bail outs, and whether or not to bail out the rich or ordinary people. They’ll choose the rich. But there is a problem with the whole “America’s debt is in dollars so it doesn’t matter theory.”

America’s a net importer. It has less and less to sell to the world that the world needs. There has been a slow but consistent move away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, a movement away from settling trade in US dollars and China’s now forcing companies to choose between America and China. If you enforce US sanctions, they’ll fine you and if you don’t pay, you’ll lose access to their market.

Ultimately the US dollar’s value comes from US strength: economically and militarily. Like the British Pound (which was once worth five times or more than the US dollar) it can be expected to lose value because there is simply less need for it. Everything you really need you can get somewhere else, unless like Europe, you’ve sanctioned other suppliers so much you’re destroying your own economy.

Anyway, all of these things all happening at the same time is all sorts of bad news. I’d expect some sort of financial crisis within a year and it will be a doozy. Wherever it starts it will hit everything in the US and Europe and the Anglosphere and much of the rest of the world. Central banks will have to spent trillions in another bail out.

But this will be the last major US bailout, because after this there will be nothing. The US will not have the tech lead in almost anything, is not creating the world’s future techs other than AI (which China is winning, anyway) and will have lost much of its military intimidation factor.

Welcome to the end of the American Empire. You’ll see it in food shortages, high prices and an elite determined to become an elite similar to India’s or much of South America’s: ruling over essentially poor nations, but filthy rich amongst the rubble.

 

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The New Cold War Intensifies

We all know about American sanctions. They are enforced by removing people from the US/EU banking system, and the SWIFT transfer network.

Because this system was used by almost everyone for international transfers, the US could forbid trade between third parties: “you can’t buy or sell from Russia/Iran/whoever because we’ll cut you off from our system.”

American law only applies in America. If Russia and Nigeria want to trade something, that should have nothing to do with the US and it should have no say. But it has and entire countries have been devastated by it.

China’s had enough:

This week a Singaporean shipping company received a hefty fine in China, the fine was just short of 5 million RMB. What happened was, they had refused to fulfill a shipment from Shanghai to Panama and returned the goods because the Hong Kong shipper was included on a U.S. sanctions list. I hope you heard that, a Singaporean shipping company, nothing to do with the USA, refused a shipment that was sent from Shanghai, in China, to Panama in Central America, of products that were being shipped by a HK company that is sanctioned.

Had the goods been going to the USA, then this would not have been illegal, because the goods, or the company shipping them are sanctioned there and Chinese domestic law can’t change that.

However, the Shanghai Maritime Court ruled this as a breach of contract, China has not sanctioned this company, the US had nothing to do with the product, the shipping or the destination so, based on Article 12 of the new Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, the court ordered compensation for the loss of over RMB 4.99 million plus interest. It went on to the Supreme People’s Court which subsequently listed it as a typical case, stating it was the first judicial judgment confirming the mandatory applicability of the law.

What this means, if it continues, and the supreme court of China’s language indicates that it will, is that you’ll be forced to choose: you can either obey US sanctions, in which case you can’t do business with China, or you can obey Chinese law and that means you won’t be able to do business with America or its vassals.

It took China a long time to do this. Only recently did China decide that the US can no longer stop its technological and industrial progress: China is ahead in almost all techs, and in the few it’s behind in it doesn’t feel it must have US goods. China forcing even AI companies to use domestic chips was a tell.

Last decade I predicted that a likely outcome of the rise of China and America’s fall was a new cold war. There’s an entire topic category “New Cold War”.

And here we are, with it reaching the serious stage.

The bottom line is that while China is happy to sell to the US and wants to keep doing so, it no longer absolutely needs to. Nor does it need parts from the US. It’s the West that needs tech transfers from China.

And there’s no upside to helping the US other than sales because everything that makes the US stronger is used to hurt China or its friends. Notice that BRICS includes two countries currently at war with the West: Russia and China, America is trying to flip Brazil back to the hard right, and Trump is constantly sanctioning South Africa.

Helping America, if you’re China, is as stupid as it gets given America has clearly treated China as an enemy and is assaulting China’s friends.

In the last cold war Russia was the weaker side, economically, from the start to the end. In this war China is stronger in every way that matters: militarily, industrially and technologically. It also has a larger population.

The smart money is “always bet on the stronger side”. Sure sometimes they lose. But not often. And the West is now the weaker side.

Welcome to the end of the European centuries. We had one hell of a run, but our leaders pissed it away. Let us hope that China is a kinder hegemon than Europe or America ever were.

 

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Iran Has Settled In For The Long Haul As Hardliners Take Control

It appears that the Iranians are no longer negotiating with America. In fact they’ve said that they won’t negotiate as long as Trump is President. Their demands are an end to all attacks, including in Lebanon and Gaza, a return of all frozen funds, an end to all oil sanctions and that US bases are never rebuilt. They won’t negotiate on the Strait, saying that’s between them and Oman.

While this is understandable: Trump is completely untrustworthy and can’t keep a deal, I think it’s not entirely true.

But when dealing with Trump, everything has to be cash or carry. The first step will be giving them all the funds: flown in in crates in non-US dollar denominations. The second is an end to sanctions.

At that point, I’d guess they’ll talk.

But the bottom line is simple: America has lost the war.

Further the new Supreme Leader has systematically been putting hard liners in key positions, including some who thought that when Israel kept attacking Lebanon, Iran should have attacked Israel. The new supreme leader is far more hardline than the old. He gave the less hardline leaders a chance to negotiate with the MOU, but that failed. The Iranian government works on “if there’s a consensus to try something the supreme leader will usually let it happen to see if it works.”

But it failed. And that gives Motjaba the legitimacy to say “you had your shot, now we’ll try it the other way.”

Iran’s fairly opaque, though not as much as what passes for Trump’s brain, so I don’t know what they’ll do, but I think if they are serious about Lebanon and Gaza they’re going to have to go to war with Israel in a real way, and defeat Israel unambiguously, as they have America.

Assuming that Israel doesn’t use nukes (which would lead to the end of Israel), this is entirely within their capabilities: they’re still producing missiles and drones, and the US is virtually out of interceptors and low on many other important weapons. Bases are badly damaged and dangerous to use. Aircraft carriers are exhausted and they’ve now had to withdraw ALL carriers from Asia. Ukraine is essentially out of interceptors, and Russia is hitting everything and anything it wants, and attacks on ports have turned Ukraine into a land locked country just as harvest season hits and Ukraine needs to ship out its grain.

The US Empire is overstretched, and Israel is a small country with less than ten million people. It’s the tail that wags the dog, but there’s not much dog left to wag and increasing influential Americans are admitting they’re going to have to make a deal on Iranian terms.

Iran has now won the missile race, which I said they would do day one of the war. The question is if they’ll win the economic race: both America and Iran’s economies are under pressure: who will succumb to that first?

Thankfully for Iran, they’ve been sanctioned for decades and China is supporting them economically. They’re not nearly as reliant on imported goods as the US is. So my guess is they win the “who can take the economic pain longer” race too, especially since if Trump doesn’t cut a deal and possibly even if he does given how long he’s left it, the Republicans are likely to get slaughtered in the midterms and Trump’s control of Congress is in question. Sure, Democrats are massive warmongers too, but forcing Trump to admit defeat isn’t politically unpalatable.

All of this is, essentially, a result of a stubborn refusal to admit reality. To admit that America couldn’t manufacture enough weapons. To admit that Iran could close the Strait and that it mattered. The weird support of Ukraine attacking Russian refineries, just as America needs Russian oil on the market.

America is so used to being able to shove everyone around that it just doesn’t seem to have occurred to most American leaders that they could decisively lose a war in a way they could not just walk away from as in Vietnam or Afghanistan. The Iranians have America by the balls and are squeezing, and America has no way to make them stop.

It’s a contest of who can inflict and endure the most pain, and the answer to both questions is “Iran.”

So Iran will win this war and it will get a good peace deal. That’s essentially baked in now. The question is if they can or will do what is necessary to force Israel out of Lebanon and Gaza. My guess is Gaza ain’t happening, but I think Lebanon is possible. The same calculus applies to Israel as America: Iran can do more damage to Israel than vice-versa, has a more secure weapons supply and nukes don’t change that: Israel can destroy Iran, but that won’t destroy all their missiles and the remaining forces would then take out Israel, including using a dirty nuke, and hitting Israel’s nuclear facilities and desalination plants. Israel would be rendered uninhabitable.

If Iran pushes hard enough on Israel, they’ll be forced to back down as well.

Wars have consequences. This one will be looked back on by historians as the death knell of America. It may be the death knell of Israel as well.

 

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 16, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 16, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War on voting

How Many States Does It Take to Steal an Election? One, and It Already Happened. Texas alone handed over 18 million voter records and signed a removal agreement.

Christopher Armitage, Aug 13, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

Eighteen states have handed their complete voter files to the Trump Justice Department, the drivers license and Social Security numbers of every registered voter included. Between them, those eighteen states hold 148 US House seats, 36 Senate seats, and 184 electoral votes, roughly two thirds of what it takes to run the House, the Senate, and the White House.

March 2025 executive order ordered states to change how they run elections and threatened to withhold federal money from the ones that refused to comply. The Justice Department went straight for the data, asking all 50 states and the District of Columbia to hand over their voter files. The Department of Homeland Security rebuilt a dormant database called SAVE so states could run those files through it for citizenship checks.

second order, in March 2026, told the Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters on a federally approved list. Financial pressure was also applied via grant conditions that make states rewrite their election rules and run their rolls through SAVE or lose 20 percent of their homeland security funding, a program worth more than a billion dollars. DHS made those conditions official in July, and two dozen states sued within two weeks….

 

A New Draft Rule for the Census Seeks Sweeping Changes to How Political Power Is Allocated – PM is publishing the Trump administration’s plan for changes to political apportionment and Census data collection.

Layla A. Jones and Josh Kovensky,  08.11.26 [Talking Points Memo]

 

War

Pentagon Drafting New Nuclear Strategy To Expand Options for Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use 

[Antiwar.com, via Naked Capitalism 08-11-2026]

Previously reported via Scott Ritter but important not to miss.

 

Deep Intel on Carrier LINCOLN’s Morale Crisis (YouTube video)

Ward Carroll, August 14, 2026 [YouTube]

4:53

The problem started with the loss of Fifth Fleet headquarters due to Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks early in the war, which some war planners might describe as a single point failure. According to Vice Admiral Verisimo, quote, “When Bahrain was no longer a port for logistics, food and mail, all the gear that was there when the shooting started got stuck there.” So that was an initial very large backlog. That also caused us to undergo very contested logistics, very difficult and long supply lines, we had to prioritize food, which was also a challenge and remains on occasion to be a challenge. End quote.

 

Deadly clash aboard US carrier Abraham Lincoln leaves seven dead, several injured: Report

[Press TV, via Naked Capitalism 08-12-2026]

Seven US Navy personnel have reportedly been killed and several others wounded in a violent clash aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, as growing unrest among the carrier’s crew has exposed mounting pressure inside the US military amid a prolonged deployment.

The incident erupted after an adviser to US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper boarded the carrier to address mounting complaints from crew members following protests by their families over the ship’s prolonged deployment, according to Tasnim News Agency, citing an informed military source.

The adviser was reportedly met with boos and had water bottles thrown at him while addressing a gathering of personnel.

The confrontation subsequently escalated into a fight among crew members involving knives and other bladed weapons, leaving seven personnel dead and several others wounded, according to the source….

 

Multiple USS Abraham Lincoln sailors have tried to go overboard amid extended deployment, families say

[Military Times, via Naked Capitalism 08-12-2026]

 

U.S. has lost 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones, roughly 25% of fleet, in Iran war

[Washington Post, summarized by Drop Site Daily: August 14, 2026]

The U.S. military has lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones during its war with Iran, representing about a quarter of the pre-war fleet and a potential taxpayer cost exceeding $1.3 billion, according to three officials cited by The Washington Post on Friday.

 

Ukrainian drones wipe out entire US tank brigade in live war game 

[Ars Technica, via Naked Capitalism 08-14-2026]

 

How Iran Adapted Its Attacks as U.S. War Munitions Dwindled

[New York Times

 

Russian Arena-M Active Protection System Finally Comes of Age on the Battlefield

[Simplicius, via Naked Capitalism 08-11-2026]

…As a first quick background, the Arena-M was originally created to stop various munitions like ATGMs and Javelins, including from “top attack” mode. These are obviously no longer a problem compared to the pervasiveness of drones. But here is test footage of an Arena-M system on a T-72B3M intercepting a small missile from a top-attack and direct trajectory as example of how it works:

The system works by having a small millimeter-wave doppler radar which detects incoming projectiles and then launches a hard-kill countermeasure that is timed and fused to explode near the tank which showers the incoming projectile with shrapnel.

Now, in a recent assault in the Dobropillya direction out of Shakhove, near Pokrovsk, Russian forces reportedly used tanks with these Arena-M systems for the first time. Footage released by the Azov Corp which defends the area showed one possible shoot down of an FPV drone by the Arena system….

But the shocker was that major pro-Ukrainian figures which included American analyst Rob Lee and a Ukrainian Special Operations veteran Dmytro Putiata spoke to the Azov units involved in the attack and learned that the Arena-M system actually worked remarkably well….

Open Thread

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