Since the ceasefire started, Iran has said that both it and any peace agreement must include Lebanon. America agreed, Israel didn’t, and the invasion of Lebanon has continued.
Yesterday Iran lost its patience and hit Israel. Israel responded. One set from each side.
For now.
But Iran has said that if Israel keeps attacking Lebanon, Iran will attack again, and much harder.
And more interestingly, Ansar Allah (the Yemeni Houthis) have closed their strait to Israeli traffic. This isn’t a full closure, but it could wind up as one.
I think it’s important to understand a bit of the psychology here: the people in charge before the war didn’t have strong emotional ties to Hezbollah. Old men. But a lot of the people now in charge do, they were personally involved in setting up Hezbollah. They trained Hezbollah. Some of them fought with Hezbollah.
There are strong self-interest reasons for Iran to want to keep Hezbollah strong, which means Israel out of Southern Lebanon. But there are also emotional ties and those matter, because Iran has to be willing to take hits to Iran if it wants to really help Hezbollah.
Of course one attack doesn’t mean much, what will matter is if Iran meant it when they said that if Israel keeps attacking Lebanon (which it will), they will attack again, and next time with much more force.
Threats that aren’t promises don’t mean much. Still, this attack has shown that Iran wasn’t just willing to walk away from Lebanon. They weren’t just spewing words when they said that any peace deal had to include both Lebanon (really, Hezbollah, since the central government is actually willing to let Israel occupy Southern Lebanon, since it’s full of Shi’a Muslims, and the government doesn’t include Muslims), and Iran.
Some people are saying that Trump needs to reign in Israel. That’s… sort of true. But I think what’s happening is simpler: Iran has recognized that America won’t rein in Israel, so Iran must establish deterrence over Israel as well as America. And that means hitting Israel.
Probably they should next send some ranging shots near Israel’s desalination plants, or their big nuclear reactor.
We’ll see how this plays out. Trump’s going to be under increasing pressure. I estimate that some shelves in America are going to be bare in about two to three months, as diesel for shipping to stores runs out in parts of the country. Prices will keep going up. Polling for the mid-terms will keep getting worse, and while Billionaires are so far using this as a profit taking opportunity, the cascade thru the supply chains is going to mean that soon things they care about are going to go up in price, or simply become unavailable: plastics, for example and chips, which require helium.
I don’t know how this will play out, because it depends on the psychology of a few key decision makers; it depends on what the hold Israel has on Trump is; it depends on if lawmakers are more scared of the Israli lobby than polls; and it depends on Iranian leadership’s pain tolerance and how much China is willing to keep supporting their economy.
That’s a lot of variables, and most of them are variable related to leadership decisions among people I don’t know very well.
People in leadership matter. When Israel jerked Kissinger’s chain in the 70s , he convinced Nixon to halt weapon shipments to Israel until they came to heel. But Israel’s lobby was weaker then and Kissinger and Nixon were both hard men: actual “alphas”. Actually dominant. Not pussies. Trump is a classic weak bully who folds under real pressure. They weren’t.
The bottom line, though, is simple. Iran beat America. Now it has to defeat Israel. If it can’t, or won’t, Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah as screwed.
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I think everyone who’s observed American, indeed, Western politics is aware that whenever a strong economic left winger comes along the attacks on him are almost always primarily about violations of “woke”.