Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Open Thread

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On November 14, 2026

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Information Overlord: The Fall of Jensen Huang, Whodunit?

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On November 14, 2026

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Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From the Let It Roll Podcast

A lot of country music this week, but it’s great stuff. I should probably have put the Ken Burns episode earlier in the decade; oh well. The R&B episode is a particular favorite because I learned a TON from RJ Smith, and Black LA in the 40s was very much at the cutting edge of culture.

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,915 out of a $14,500 goal from 80 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.

 

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

AI Bubble

Behind Jensen Huang’s spy scandal, a shadow war for Trump’s ear on China — Washington Post
Huang’s downfall, which has the potential to mark a dramatic shift in power, was ultimately set in motion by one of the capital’s most influential China hard-liners, national security adviser and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio issued a memo warning Trump about the relationship between Huang and a suspected Chinese spy, based on a report generated by the CIA, according to a person familiar with the matter. Rubio used the CIA report to write his own, recasting the agency’s reporting in his own more assertive terms, the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe confidential intelligence.

 

AI Bubble: ‘Circular financing is over’ | Ed Zitron — The Tech Report (YouTube).

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang RESIGNS After Second Affair – AI Stocks Crashing — Eli the Computer Guy (YouTube).

  • The Hater’s Guide To Megaspeed — Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At. “Up until as recently as last week, talking about NVIDIA’s illicit shipments of GPUs would have seen you branded a conspiracy theorist or a ‘doomer,’ mostly because the allegations are so severe, but also because NVIDIA’s bull run was so impressive and rapid, the idea that any meaningful part of it was the result of anything underhand simply couldn’t register with the most dented cheerleaders for the AI bubble.
    “And yet, none of this should have been a surprise. Culper’s research — which I referenced heavily in the free piece — was published in May 2026, and it formed part of the basis for its short position. And it needs to be stressed how significant this is, and how much peril Culper would find itself in if it turned out to be wrong — and, therefore, how confident it was in its findings.
    “If Culper was wrong, it didn’t open itself up to potential civil action (US defamation law sets a higher bar than in other countries, like the UK or Australia, but it still exists), but also, if you’re wrong when making a short, the losses are theoretically infinite.
    “The Wall Street Journal’s piece (that ran on Wednesday) fails to square the circle of how the largest media outlets in the world ignored the story entirely, yet the most damning part is that even in accepting that Culper might be onto something, the Journal fails to mention that 20% of NVIDIA’s Fiscal Year 2026 revenue might have come from China, nor does it make any attempts to discuss the contents of the report.”
  • Jensen’s Bizarre Adventure — Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At.

Bloomberg graphic: Shanghai Shuoyao and Megaspeed computing clusters overlap

Outages

Trump 2.0 Regime

Democrats

  • The Democrats’ First Move After Their Big Win? A Giveaway to Big Oil. — The New Republic.
  • Democrats Missed Hegseth Impeachment Vote While at a Fundraiser with Defense Lobbyists — Drop Site News.
  • Why Does Chuck Schumer Have So Much Support? — @matthewstoller. “Schumer’s model of operating the Senate is very specific. He allows Senators a lot of room to legislate on their priorities, and operates as a logistical center to get them what they need to have a comfortable job. Money, staff, parking spots, whatever. But especially money for reelection. He is a very hard worker, perhaps the hardest in the Senate.
    “Where does he get that money? Good question! Ironically, he gets it from those members themselves, indirectly. If they push legislation that challenges powerful interests, he uses that as leverage to get support from those interests, and then redirects that money to get those same people reelected. The legislation tends to die, as that is often the price for the money. Schumer also offers some adjacent useful policy choices that are incrementally useful to Senators on their pet questions. So it’s a sort of odd dynamic, where Senators spend their time doing busywork in order for Schumer to generate the funds to get them reelected to keep doing busywork.”
  • The Case For Jeffries — @matthewstoller. “Dem members of Congress and base voters see Hakeem Jeffries very differently. I’ll try to make the case for Jeffries, from the perspective of members. Ironically, they like him for the same reason voters don’t, which is that he’s nice and passive. He’s NOT Pelosi.”

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The Resignation of NVidia’s Jensen Huang

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On November 13, 2026

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As you may have heard, Jensen Huang has stepped down as CEO of NVidia (the most valuable company in the world) due to allegations he was sleeping with a Chinese spy.

The truth of this is irrelevant, but as best I can tell (and I sure could be wrong) Jensen wasn’t sleeping with the Chinese woman in question, but was cheating with someone at NVidia. And, again, as best I can tell, the Chinese woman isn’t a spy, just a woman using her charm on someone who could make a big difference to her. I’m not going to dissect the details, because I don’t care and it doesn’t matter.

A scandal like this doesn’t happen if people in power don’t want it to. Look at all the pedophiles protected by both Biden and Trump, or all the corruption which is never prosecuted.

When a member of the elite is taken down it is either allowed, or made to happen. This appears to be in the second category, the FBI is going after Huang HARD.

Huang’s one of the better billionaires. (This is like saying “he’s a very handsome housefly.”) He was willing to pay the billionaire tax if it passed. But more to the point he has been a champion of Open Source, opposed restrictions on what AI can do (Anthropic has made it so that you can’t do biological research or AI research or a number of other things with Claude), and has resisted the trade war with China on chips, rightfully pointing out that it means ceding the chip market. Huawei’s Ascend chips are expected to be produced at a volume of 10 million a year by 2028, from there it will go up fast.

This made Jensen an outlier: a very powerful CEO who opposed the tech-bro consensus on AI and the brewing cold war with China.

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,915 out of a $14,500 goal from 80 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.

I suspect that Anthropic pushed hard for this. They have a big war chest, will get a big influx of sucker money for their IPO, and are aware that open source AI is eventually going to eat their lunch because it costs less and doesn’t have all the restrictions they’re putting on their AI. So Anthropic wants regulation to create a moat: everyone to agree on AI controls and any AI that doesn’t have them to be made illegal because “super dangerous, might destroy humanity.” (Huang also pushed back on this saying there was zero chance that AI would end the world any time soon.)

Huang stood in their way, and Ahthropic has convinced the intelligence/law-enforcement crowd that AI is super duper dangerous, and that Chinese AI is a Trojan Horse.

If the intel/law-enforcement mob wants you taken out, you will be taken out. Huang was on the wrong side of a current elite panic, and he paid the price.

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Banking Needs To Be A Human Right

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On November 11, 2026

27 Comments

This scourge continues to spread:

Poland just voted to EXPAND the government’s power to freeze your assets without a court ruling. Say the “wrong” thing online, and you could wake up to a FROZEN bank account. The bill lets the Interior Minister sanction anyone accused of supporting foreign interference or information manipulation aimed at Poland. Bank accounts, property, even crypto can be frozen instantly by administrative decision, and appealing to a court won’t automatically lift the freeze. It passed 240 to 202 last week.

In Britain and Germany multiple people have had their bank accounts frozen for supporting Palestine. When government isn’t directly involved banks often do the dirty work themselves, for example German banks debanking AfD politicians. The same happened to Farage in the UK. In Canada we had the government freezing accounts of the protestors against vaccines who parked their trucks in Ottawa. (I didn’t support the truckers, but at the time I said the accounts shouldn’t be frozen.)

As the economy moves more and more to electronic payments, being without a bank becomes more and more a sentence to homelessness. And even the small cash window is often closed In Germany, when the government de-banks you they also make it illegal to give the de-banked person any money so they can eat or pay rent.

This method of control makes organizing against the government almost impossible. It’s done to individuals and organizations. It needs to end. At the very least it cannot be something that is done by executive fiat but which requires a judge and jury and a trial. If the issue is avoiding someone transferring stolen money, then the amount that is frozen needs to be limited: enough must be left to pay bills, eat and so on and there has to be a mandatory maximum period the money can be frozen for.

Every individual should have a guaranteed bank account. The simplest way to do this is that when someone comes of age and gets whatever number the government uses to track citizens (like the social security number) then an account is opened by the central tax authority or a postal bank. A card is issued and the account is capable of all the normal things a bank account does. If you want retail outlets (not a bad idea) go back to postal banking. This account can never be taken away from someone, ever, even if they go to prison.

This needs to be a constitutional right, because increasingly you simply can’t survive without a bank account and governments cannot be trusted not to use petty powers to destroy their enemies of the day.

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,530 out of a $14,500 goal from 77 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.

Character & The Fate of Nations

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On November 10, 2026

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Back in 2013 year I wrote a large number of pieces on ideology, and quite a few were about character: how it is created by experience, and how specific types of character (like sociopathy) are selected for amongst our leadership classes.

This is a reprint from 2014, then called “Matters of Character”. I think it’s important and that newer readers would benefit from reading it.

Let’s parse this out:

1) Character (personality), determines how people act.

2) While part of character is clearly genetic, much of it forms out of our experiences. Different experiences create different types of character. As a simple thought exercise, you would be a very different person if you had been born five hundred years ago in, say, Central Africa, than you are today.

3) As children, our primary experience is of school. We are a very schooled society, with the upper classes starting school at age 5 or so, and continuing into their mid twenties. Twenty years of schooling is not uncommon. Fifteen to sixteen is completely normal.

4) This schooling takes place when we are forming much of our character, when we are most susceptible to having our character changed.

5) In addition to this, we are influenced by media of various kinds (including books), our parents, and our peer group.

6) Different time periods form different characters, as do different nations, because people born in those times and places have different experiences. The more synchronized events are, as Newberry has noted, the stronger this is. In a mass media society, with relatively fast technological and social change, it makes sense to speak of generations. The character of people born 20 or 30 years apart in modern societies will be different, and within cohorts similar experiences will tend to create somewhat similar patterns of character.

7) Society is nothing except people and their creations and interactions over time. Walk around an old neighbourhood one day, and look at the buildings, the road, the trees and think about all the people who made everything you see, and all the people behind those people. Read the laws, and know that people made those, and enforce those.

8 ) Because society is just people, past and present, the nature of society is formed by our character.

9) If we want a different society, we must deal with matters of character.

10) Because we should be leery of engaging in eugenics, for reasons which should be obvious, changing society involves changing character through changing our lived experiences.

 

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,530 out of a $14,500 goal from 77 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.

 

11) Everyone’s character matters, but some people’s character matters more than others. The more power someone has, whether that power comes from political position, charisma, force, or money, the more their character matters.

12) Leaders inform the character of people. People tend to act up, or down, to their leadership.

13) Money is permission. The more money you have, the more you get to decide what other people do. This can be directly through hiring them, or indirectly by buying the products of other people’s time. As the market society has spread to more and more of our lives, what we do is what gets paid for.

14) Who we give money to, and be clear that what banks, government and financial institutions do is decide who gets money, and what they get to spend it on, determines much of the lived experience of adults, and indeed of children outside school, and with the rise of for-profit schooling, inside school.

15) Money positions are of three main types. Elected (taxes); officers (CEOs and so on who control a lot of money that isn’t theirs); actually rich (the money is their own).

16) In all three cases who gets that money is a social choice. Billionaires are a social choice, created by government policy including tax policy, and the entire structure of how profits are booked. Multi-millionaire CEOs are a social choice, created by tax and other laws as well as social norms. And politicians are a social choice, especially in a democracy, but even in autocracies, though in such societies few people’s active and passive consent is needed.

17) If we select for positions of power, whether monetary, political, or charismatic, people whose character is such that they do not insist on good outcomes for the majority of people, then those outcomes will occur only by chance, if the happenstance of technology and environment aligns in what amounts to random fashion. Having not been planned, having not been understood, any such prosperity and freedom will not last.

18) If society is just us, and is a matter of our character combined with environment and technology, then we must consciously choose what we want our character to be. If we look at how we raise children and see that it is not creating the sort of people required for a happy, free, healthy, and prosperous society, then we need to change how we rear children. This is a social decision, not an individual one: we can choose a different type of learning (not necessarily schooling), we can choose a different type of media, we can choose to encourage different types of parenting (parenting styles have changed massively over the last 100 years, more than once).

19) We can also change how we select our leaders, both political and economic, to whom we give money, and for what purpose. We already do: Who makes money is a social choice, embedded in our tax code, laws (like “IP”), and monetary system. We can make other choices and create a system where people make money because they do good, not because they do evil (see “bankers”).

20) We can change our adult experience of the world, and when we change how goods and services are distributed (note that I did not use the word “money”), we will change our experience of the world, and in so doing we will change our character.

21) We can do so even if our current character is flawed. The politicians who ended Jim Crow were themselves mostly racists. They were racists who knew that racism was wrong. It is possible to look at one’s own character and know that it is simply a product of experience: to say “I am racist and sexist but I still know that is wrong.” It is possible to be involved in corruption (Kennedy Sr., the first SEC chairman) and decide to help clean it up, to end it. It is possible to have all the accoutrements of privilege (FDR) and turn around and change society mostly for the better.

We are all products of our time and place. We are all products of our parents and our experiences; millions of small events which shaped our character, for good, for ill, for kicks.

All of us (except maybe a few enlightened sages).

The full realization of how shaped we are is one of the watersheds of any voyage worth having. If you cannot look at yourself, and see how shaped you were, then you are trapped by those experiences, an even more limited and finite being than you need to be.

Once, however, you see the shaping, feel it, know it, and acknowledge it, then you are not free, but you have the potential to be more free, to change what you are and who you are, both individually, and as a group.

Character matters. It is destiny. Change your character, change your destiny. Change the character of nations; change their destiny.

Change the character of humanity; change our destiny.

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China Isn’t Just Going To Win AI, It Will Win Semiconductors As Well

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On November 9, 2026

23 Comments

Regular readers know that I’ve projected China winning the AI market (not necessarily the race). The argument is simple: Chinese AI is a lot cheaper and it’s open source, which means you can’t be cut off or arbitrarily have your price raised or the AI crippled with restrictions. (Well, not easily.)

Chinese open models are cheaper and come with less risk. Most of the world will use them. The frontier models are, sometimes, better, but the open models are about 6 months behind at most, it’s not enough.

The rule for competing with Chinese companies is simple: you must be more advanced and stay more advanced. Anything they can make, they can make cheaper than you can, with a few exceptions, mostly outside of manufacturing.

But there’s another issue. Chips.

If you’ve needed to replace your computer or phone you know that chip prices have gone WAY up. Even the low and middle tier stuff is way more expensive than two years ago as AI companies hoover up chips for data centers. (Many of which won’t be built, and most chips are actually in warehouses.)

China’s been working on chips, hard, ever since Trump’s sanctions in his first term. They’re going to scale and since they’re good at doing things cheap as they scale they will take over the low and middle end CPU, memory, GPU and other chip markets, while US/Korean/Taiwanese companies sell to American AI companies.

When the AI bubble bursts, and it will, not because AI isn’t a real tech, but because this is a bubble the companies that ignored consumers to make record profits will find that China has taken over the markets they used to own.

Then China, because it actually does most of the low and middle end manufacturing, in country, will beat them on advanced chips, because the tech lead goes where the manufacturing floor is.

 

We’re about 2 weeks into our annual fundraiser. We’ve raised about $9,420 out of a $14,500 goal from 75 people. This blog is free for everyone to read, and we’ve got about ten thousand visitors a month. Of those about 6K are regulars.

The simplest truth of capitalism is that you get more of what you pay for. Money sends the message and resources required to do things. In most cases your power is tiny, one of millions, but this isn’t like that because the numbers and the need (to keep the blog and Ian running) are relatively small.

So if you value this blog, if it’s worth having around to you, please consider Subscribing or Donating.

This is… bad, but frankly, I need to replace my computer in the next couple years so I’m not crying. If Western companies don’t care to sell me their products at reasonable prices, yeah, I’ll buy Chinese.

The loss of high end markets has already started:

Huawei AI NPU Servers to Land in Korea in Q4, Throwing Down the Gauntlet to NVIDIA Huawei will launch its artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator chips in the Korean market for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. Following the completion of a distribution agreement covering domestic sales, the company has been observed preparing its sales operations, including technical training and pricing policy development. Amid exploding demand for AI infrastructure, Huawei is expected to knock on the door of the Korean market by positioning itself as an alternative that resolves dependence on NVIDIA and offers price competitiveness.

A little math. Each 910 chip has 70% of the compute of the NVidia alternative, but draws 40% of the power.

There’s one other thing to bear in mind: the massive construction of data centers in the West is driving up energy prices and that drives up costs for every manufacturing company in the West, so even outside of chips/AI Western industry will be less price competitive.

If it wasn’t for European and Japanese leaders, I’d think that America has the stupidest leaders in the world.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 08, 2026

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On November 8, 2026

5 Comments

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 08, 2026
by Tony Wikrent

 

Our Shiny Next War, The Democrats’ Shiny Next Win 

Thomas Neuburger [God’s Spies].

… David Sirota outlines that problem quite well. His title: “Haley Stevens’ Betrayal Is A Warning: Corporate Dems Are MAGA’s Enablers”. The piece may be paywalled. Click here to read his remarks appended below. As he writes:

a positive anti-MAGA election would not be the end of anything. It would only be the beginning of a much longer battle….

I swear, Democrats could rule for a full generation if they just FDR-ed themselves.

 

New Oversight Roadmap for 120th Congress Outlines Key Accountability Priorities

Heather Souvaine Horn, Nov 05, 2026 [Public Citizen]

Public Citizen celebrated election results on Wednesday by publishing an “Oversight Agenda Roadmap” for the new Congress. “The American people are demanding much more than grandstanding and ritual condemnation of the most corrupt administration in American history,” said Public Citizen co-president Robert Weissman in the organization’s press release. The punchy first suggestion in the report: Hold hearings interviewing food bank leaders, health care providers, and more about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s “real-world impacts” while also investigating “how corporations used the financial gains from OBBBA, including decisions related to layoffs, wages, hiring, domestic investment, executive compensation, stock buybacks, and shareholder distributions” and determining “whether the economic promises used to justify OBBBA—including job creation, wage growth, and business investment—have materialized.”

 

The Ground We Walked: A Moral Monday Night of Gratitude and Reflection

Bishop William Barber, II and Rev. Dr. Hanna R. Broome, Nov 7, 2026

We Made History.
Now We Finish the Work.

Beginning in November 2025, we launched a mighty push to push back and move forward. It started in North Carolina. It moved to Raleigh. It carried us to Washington, D.C. And it grew into a national call: 1,000 Marches to the Polls.

And you answered., Leaders in communities across the nation committed to more than 700 marches. Clergy and moral leaders, people of many traditions and people of no faith, walked with their neighbors to the polls. God blessed our efforts.

But this work did not begin last November. It stands on 13 years of struggle. In 2013, the first Moral Monday began with 17 people. By 2014, more than 100,000 people filled the streets of Raleigh. Since then, moral fusion has taken root across this country, and especially in the South.

This was the work of the people. You showed this nation how to build diverse coalitions. How to mobilize poor and low-wage people as leaders, not as an afterthought. How to love forward together. How to turn the streets into a classroom. How to embrace a Third Reconstruction agenda that is bigger than poverty alone. How to take on religious extremism. How to practice moral defiance.

Monday, November 9, 2026 8:00 PM Eastern  |  7:00 PM Central  |  6:00 PM Mountain  |  5:00 PM Pacific

RSVP for Monday Night

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Information Overlord: Can Jeffries and Schumer Dam the Blue Wave?

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On November 7, 2026

3 Comments

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

Election night kind of overwhelmed me; I’m not used to staying up that late! Will be more productive next week.

The Democrats are the dogs who caught the car and think they’re really fast and have strong jaws when in reality voter rage at Trump’s losing war on Iran, data center madness, the ongoing genocide in Gaza virtually guaranteed the opposition party a huge win.

It appears neither the House nor the Senate will overthrow the corrupt and incompetent leadership, so I’m not especially optimistic about the future, but it’s nice to see that American voters can still throw a tantrum and get noticed, however briefly.

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

The From the Beginning Project is hitting a fun patch. The 1930s were a spectacular decade for dance music. A massive depression will do that, and the U.S. was culturally potent like it had never been, combining cultures and rhythms in a way that got the whole world’s attention.

It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $9,460 out of a $14,500 goal, from 75 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show

Will TKO Blame Dana White for Trump’s Midterm Disaster? — The Mad Squabbles Show (YouTube), Nov. 4th.

What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Dems

Will the Democrats Betray Us Again? — The Chris Hedges Report (YouTube).

AI Bubble

OpenAI Is Screwed — The Tech Report (YouTube).

What Are All Those Data Centers For — Inside China Business (YouTube).

WTF Just Happened to Global Markets? — Eurodollar University (YouTube).

Crypto

North Korea Robbed Binance — Patrick Boyle (YouTube).

Deep State

  • 9/11 as a Structural Deep Event — Peter Dale Scott. “Early on the day of of 9/11 Vice-President Cheney and Defense Secretrary Donald Rumsfeld, while George W. Bush was absent in Florida, implemented the elaborate rules of Continuity of Government (COG), a once once described in Congress without rebuttal as ‘a plan to suspend the American Constitution.’ It was also a plan on which the same pair, Cheney and Rumsfeld, had been working on in secret for two decades – even when both men were outsude government and heading important private corporations.
    “I wrote in 2014 that with a few notable exceptions, there has thus far been scant interest in the media and the public in the extraordinary facts that Cheney and Rumsfeld were able to
    “1. help plan successfully for constitutional modifications, when they were not in government, and
    “2. implement these same changes themselves when back in power.”

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