For all that Iran has been mopping the floor with the U.S., Israel, and the Gulf States, things have come to a precarious point.
While Iran has been mopping the floor strategically with the U.S., Israel, and the Gulf States, a Saudi-Pakistani military alliance could enter the fray on the U.S. side and make a difference.
This from Ian’s post of the 12th made my Spidey Sense tingle:
Pakistan used (the ceasefire) to reposition military to Saudi Arabia, and Iran doesn’t want a war with Pakistan.
That said, Pakistan’s taking a real risk here, domestically, ninety percent of Pakistanis support Iran, and the country is one spark from a revolution anyway. The army, of course, will gun down any number of civilians to retain control, but even so…
Plus the US has snared another Sunni-majority country in their military web, Indonesia:
In a joint statement, the US Defense Department and Indonesia’s Defense Ministry said the agreement reflects “decades of cooperation” and a shared commitment to peace, security, and respect for sovereignty.
“Both countries recognize each other as important partners and reaffirm their commitment to cooperation based on mutual respect, sovereignty, and shared interest in regional peace and stability,” the statement said.
Per the statement, the pact rests on three core pillars: military modernization and capacity building, training and professional military education, and exercises and operational cooperation.
Earlier Monday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with his Indonesian counterpart Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin at the Pentagon to discuss efforts to boost the bilateral defense relationship.
Indonesia could potentially supply a LOT of ground forces for an attack on Iran, but I’m not sure their population would be into the idea.
Andrew Korybko has more on the US’ strategic aims for the Indonesia alliance:
it was reported that “US, Indonesia discuss allowing US military overflight in Indonesian airspace”, which refers to a “preliminary draft that is being discussed internally” right now, but the writing is on the wall that the US aims to leverage their MDCP to this end. The purpose appears to be obtaining the ability to blockade the Strait of Malacca to Chinese ships in the event of a crisis just like it’s now blockading the Strait of Hormuz to ships that almost all go back and forth between China and Iran.
The grand strategic goal being pursued is Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy of Denial”. The gist is that the US must do its utmost to prevent Chinese hegemony in Asia, in furtherance of which it’s indirectly controlling or cutting off Chinese resource imports (Venezuela and Iran) and seeking control over global chokepoints (Hormuz, Malacca, and the Panama Canal), with everything accelerating ahead of Trump’s trip to China from 14-15 May. Trump hopes that this will coerce Xi into a lopsided trade deal.
OR
A nascent coalition of Turkey-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan could decide that Iran is on the verge of destroying Israel and decide to jump in against Israel to claim a big part of the prize.
The post-script of Bruce O’Hara’s most recent Substack newsletter made it all come together for me:
While it must be said that Iran doesn’t have many friends across the Middle East, many nations have depended on Iran to restrain Israel’s expansionist tendencies. The nations of the Middle East do not want the war to end with Iran destroyed and Israel intact. If it becomes clear that Israel is almost out of offensive and defensive weaponry, it would serve the interests of Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan to gang up on a weakened Israel. Turkey’s Ergodan just today compared Netenyahu to Hitler. That’s Iran’s other hope: if they can deplete Israel enough to be relatively defenceless, Israel’s neighbours will suddenly find their courage.
Pakistan’s role as the mediator was no accident and reflects their remarkable geo-strategic positioning.
Three key facts about Pakistan to keep in mind:
- The current regime has limited popular legitimacy
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan was overthrown with US backing (he attempted neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War, his replacements sent huge arms shipments to Ukraine) in 2022 and replaced by the current regime fronted by Shehbaz Sharif. Khan, one of the most popular politicians in the country’s history was then railroaded on all kinds of charges, trumped up and otherwise, and has been in solitary confinement. Khan’s wikipedia page is an exercise in slander but the awfulness of the story still shines through. This makes it very tricky for the Shenbaz Sharif
- Pakistan has India relatively diplomatically isolated
Pakistan was at war with India its fellow nuclear power as recently as May of last year and its partisans have vociferously claimed complete victory — with lots of credit being given to their Chinese-built Chengdu J-10C fighter jets. Somehow Pakistan has managed to maintain close ties with China, Turkey, AND Trump’s United States while Modi’s India finds itself on the outs with Trump, at the mercy of an angry Russia for oil supplies (costs tripled for India in March), linked to Israel’s regional pariah zionist regime, and no closer than ever to China.
Pakistan (with the strong backing of China) arm-twisted Iran into accepting a ceasefire and entering talks with the U.S. in Islamabad.
Pakistan also shipped fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. Which is a good time to think about the implications of the Pakistani-Saudi Mutual Defense Pact. DropSite News has some leaked documents:
On Saturday, as Pakistan was in the middle of mediating hard-won ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran, Saudi Arabia made a sudden revelation that appeared to undermine Pakistan’s status as a neutral host. In a statement posted on X, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced “the arrival of a military force from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan at King Abdulaziz Air Base in the Eastern Sector,” adding that the force would include a contingent of military aircraft and would improve “operational readiness between the armed forces of the two countries.”
Those deployments are the result of a defense pact signed last year between Riyadh and Islamabad that has now been activated amid an ongoing regional war and numerous Iranian attacks against military and energy targets in Saudi Arabia.
…
The risk that Pakistan may itself be pushed into the war is also important context for the zeal of Pakistan’s leaders to bring an end to the fighting. Pakistan enjoys good ties with both Iran and the U.S., and relies heavily on financial support from Saudi Arabia. Following news that the United Arab Emirates had recalled a loan from Pakistan last week, Saudi Arabia and Qatar stepped up with $5 billion aimed at propping up Islamabad’s foreign reserves as it deals with fallout from the economic crisis caused by the war.
Pakistan has more than problems, it is in a predicament.
Note the bit about the UAE and Pakistan being on the outs.
That pairs well with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) being at odds with the UAE’s Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ).
The rulers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been very close ever since MBZ backed the palace coup that put the young MBS on the throne in the place of Muhammad bin Nayef, a CIA darling.
Together the two launched a war on Yemen in 2015 (with US backing). That war caused over half a million Yemeni civilian deaths but proved a costly humiliation for the Saudis and UAE.
After the UAE signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020 near the end of Trump’s first term, it seemed that MBZ would lead his Saudi protege into signing on. That changed after October 7, 2023.
The genocide in Gaza made it politically untenable for any Muslim leader to get closer to Israel.
In the mean time, MBS and MBZ’s relationship has degenerated into open proxy warfare in Yemen. The Saudi backed forces whomped ass on the UAE’s pawns in a scrap the UAE side started with some flagrant territory grabbing.
The 12 Day War last June pushed the Saudis to re-calibrate away from the UAE, Israel and the U.S.
MBS signed a Chinese-brokered peace deal with the Iranians. The Iranians have so far left the Saudis with their pipeline to the Red Sea, a route Iran could cut off at anytime by bombing the pumping stations or encouraging their Houthi allies in Yemen to blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb to Saudi oil.
Iran could also take out the Saudi power and water desalination plants and render Riyadh uninhabitable.
That’s where the Saudi-Pakistani mutual defense pact, and Pakistani’s nuclear arsenal come into play.
IF the Sauds push the US to leave their territory then they should have no further conflict with Iran, regardless of however many Pakistani troops are on their territory. If they continue to support US and Israeli attacks on Iran, very different situation.
And so does the four way “discussion group” with Turkey and Egypt that MBS has assembled to join Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as regional power brokers.
While neither Egypt nor Turkey is a nuclear power, both are significant military powers in the region.
Both are also deeply entanged militarily with the U.S. Turkey because of its NATO membership. Egypt because of the billions of dollars of military funding the U.S. gives it as a reward for cooperating with Israel. Also the U.S. backed the coup which put President Sisi in power and overturned the post-Arab Spring elections.
But nonetheless, the four countries met in May and discussed a mutual security pact, per Middle East Eye:
Turkey has, since last year, been seeking a security pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Earlier this year, a Pakistani minister said in a statement that such a deal had been in the pipeline for nearly a year.
Turkish sources familiar with the issue previously told Middle East Eye that Ankara was also trying to bring Egypt into the arrangement. The sources said the agreement would not mirror the guarantees and commitments of Nato, but would instead serve as a security platform to enable greater cooperation in the defence industry and broader defence matters.
…
While Ankara has repeatedly described Israel as the primary instigator of the war with Iran, a joint statement by the participating countries in Riyadh on Thursday strongly criticised Tehran for its attacks on the Gulf.
The statement mentioned Israel only briefly, referring to its “expansionist” policy in Lebanon.
Erdogan has spent the last thirty months loudly accusing Israel of genocide and quietly supplying them with oil via a pipeline from Azerbaijan.
But since the Iran War, he has upped his anti-Israeli rhetoric, even threatening military action this weekend.
The Jerusalem Post’s coverage could be dismissed as scare-aganda, cheap theater to reassure their readership that Turkey presents a real and ever present threat and might need to be attacked at some point:
Responding to reporters later in the day, Erdogan escalated his rhetoric even further, suggesting that Ankara could choose to engage with Israel militarily.
“We must be strong to prevent Israel from doing this to Palestine,” Erdogan said. “Just as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we will do the same to them,” he stated. “There is nothing to prevent us from doing it. We just need to be strong so that we can take these steps.”
The Turkish foreign minister got into it today:
Turkey feels increasingly encircled by growing cooperation between Israel, Greece and Cyprus, Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister, said on Monday, warning that, after Iran, Tel Aviv could turn its attention to Ankara.
Fidan’s remarks come in the aftermath of the collapse of Iran–US peace talks and amid rising tensions with Israel over regional stability. Ankara has so far remained outside the conflict in Iran but has been accused of maintaining close ties with the Iranian regime as well as its regional proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.
“After Iran, Israel cannot exist without an enemy; as you know, it has to develop a certain rhetoric,” Fidan told Anadolu Agency. The Turkish foreign minister added that both the Israeli government and some opposition figures were seeking to “designate Türkiye as a new enemy.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz responded by calling Erdoğan a “paper tiger”, saying that he had not reacted to reported missile launches from Iran towards Turkish territory.
“A member of the Muslim Brotherhood who slaughtered the Kurds is accusing Israel – which is defending itself against its Hamas allies – of genocide,” he added.
Turkey’s been on a collision course with Israel since their mutual U.S. backed project to destabilize Syria succeeded all too well and put the famous Al-Jolani, ex-Al Queda and ISIS, in charge.
That added to the relentless political pressure from a Turkish population outraged by the genocide in Gaza and less and less inclined to be placated by Erdogan’s empty rhetoric.
Israel’s dominance of Greece and Cyprus gets Turkey’s hackles up and combined with the Trump regime’s attempt to entice Kurdish forces to attack Iran, Erdogan might be forced to make a real break with the U.S. and go after Israel.
Iran has choices to make but holding to a dead ceasefire while enemies and potential enemies make moves isn’t a good one.
First, the lines have not moved much in the last few months. There are a few reasons for this. One is the Russians are having a tricky time consolidating some of their gains. The reasons for this are two fold: one is it it’s the mud season. It’s rainy and it’s thawing and that is not a good combination for an offensive mechanized or infantry. And two, when your opponent knows the lay of the land better than you do – they are after all fighting in the Ukraine – they take advantage of it. The Ukrainians have done just that.